RESEARCH REPORT FROM THE FIELDSeptember 2021ByMichael Powell Assisted by Marsha Neill, Bob Waidner and Patty Waidner

Especially readers who live locally in the Antelope Valley and therefore, after suffering through this summer, are wondering if, thanks to Global warming, this was the hottest summer ever, I suggest checking out the extended article (link below). In the extended article, you’ll learn about the more recent history of the Poppy Reserve’s summer temperatures, if Global warming appears to be affecting those temperatures and, at least, the short term temperature record that was, indeed, set this summer at the Poppy Reserve. The extended article concludes with a discussion on how a new way of displaying the Reserve’s temperatures appears to hold great promise of, when combined with the Reserve’s rainfall data, helping to explain the observed ebbs and flows of the poppy displays; the great seasons and the busts. This being the autumn edition of the newsletter, here is what the experts are predicting for this coming winter’s rains. The mild La Nina condition that the eastern Pacific Ocean has been in for a while, officially ended in May. The weather models are predicting that the eastern Pacific Ocean’s surface temperatures will be pretty normal; neither more than 0.5 degrees warmer, La Nina, nor 0.5 degrees colder, El Nino, through December or January. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. Actually, it’s anyone’s guess all the time. Actually, it doesn’t seem to matter if it normal, La Nina, or El Nino as far as the Reserve’s seasonal rainfall. How directly the Reserve gets hit with an atmospheric river seems to be the main factor impacting the Reserve’s seasonal rainfall. The bottom line is that I don’t know what will happen this winter. Like everyone else, it’s a wait and see. I end with my standard encouragement to visit the Reserve throughout the year. Later autumn and early winter are some of the best times to visit; warm (but not too hot) temperatures and mild (not hurricane force) winds. It is likely you won’t find too many plants blooming this year but the serenity of the Reserve itself makes it well worth a visit.
Excerpt from September's report: Are warming spring months impacting poppy displays?With the possibility of warming spring months potentially impacting the quality of the spring poppy displays, another approach to investigating changes in the Reserve’s temperatures was also explored; is there any trend in the dates that the Reserve first records 80°F, 90°F and 100°F. Although this investigation was only partially successful, it appears that it did solve a mystery I wrote about in an earlier article. Figure 4 (link below) shows how those first days have varied since 1998. Over the intervening years, the Reserve reached a maximum daily temperature of 80°F as early as mid-February and as late as late April. The Reserve reached 90°F as early as mid-March and as late as early June. Because February, March and April are the peak months of the poppy season, these early, or late, hot spells can have, and have had, a profound impact on the quality and duration of the annual spring wildflower season. Combining these temperature patterns with the preceding winter/spring total seasonal rainfall seemingly has great potential to better explain what has to happen to get a super bloom year or poor poppy display seasons which can be a topic for a future researcher’s “Report from The Field” article. Although further analysis is needed to gain a fuller understanding of how the subtle dance of temperature patterns and seasonal rainfall combine to impact the splash of radiant poppy orange across the hillsides of the Reserve each season, two examples will be discussed later in this article. Before that discussion, let’s finish the summer temperature discussion as well as the promised discussion on the Poppy Reserve rainfall trends. With the earliest 100°F day not occurring until mid-May, long after the spring’s peak poppy color, it appears that the warmest part of the summer should have little impact on the spring wildflower displays.
What does the Poppy Reserve look like right now? View the LIVE CAM.
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